Arguing with myself over handcuffs

Every year during the draft season, there are those running back that usually go above their Average Draft Position (ADP) because they hold value if one of the top running backs goes down. Now that we are five weeks into the season let’s talk about those players—the running back handcuffs. First, I want to clarify that this doesn’t apply to those RBs who have stand-alone value like Kareem Hunt, Latavius Murray, and Jonathan Taylor. Nor does this apply to those situations where we had no clue who the starter was—the true RBBCs like San Francisco, Miami, Jacksonville, Washington. What we are talking about is those guys who got drafted as the insurance for the top backs. Some names that come to mind are Tony Pollard (Zeke), Alexander Mattison (D. Cook) Carlos Hyde (C. Carson).

Note - This was written before the start of week 5.

The Pessimist

Handcuffs don’t hold the same value that they did in the draft and aren’t worth rostering.

The Optimist

Yes, they do. The value is a little lowered due to the fewer weeks left in the season, but not by much. These example handcuffs were drafted over players like Dion Lewis (S. Barkley’s backup) because they have shown that they will produce at a high level if given a chance to be the starter. In games during 2019, we saw Pollard put up 13 carries for 103 yards and a TD, 12 carries for 131 yards and a TD, and 14 carries for 60 yards. He has shown that he can produce when given the full-time opportunity. Even this year, as the backup, Pollard is averaging more yards per carry (4.47) than Elliot (3.90). Mattison has also shown that when he’s given a starters’ workload, he can produce. When given over ten carries in a game in 2019, Mattison put up yardage totals of 58, 63, 61, and 46. Carlos Hyde has been injured this year, but last year with Houston, he put up 1,000 yards and 6 TDs. That’s excellent production in Houston’s lackluster situation.

The Pessimist

Handcuffs hold some value in that if the starter goes down, they get the volume, which is key in fantasy. BUT the issue is that every week that passes, you are holding a guy that won’t make it into your lineup without an injury. If your league has a deep bench, sure I guess you can hold them, but as we head into the bye weeks, those bench spots might become more critical. Weeks 6, 7, 9, and 10 have four teams on byes, and week 11 has six. And then you have week 8 with three and week 13 with two teams on bye. Covering bye weeks is a critical yet rarely talked about strategy to winning fantasy championships. This year, with Covid continually changing the schedule, having a player you can pivot to is vital. Roster spots are at a premium this year.

The Optimist

If you drop the handcuff, what are you getting? Someone off the waivers who starts for what one maybe two weeks as a flex play to cover a bye week? Is that worth more than a potential fantasy playoff star and league winner? Let’s say you have one of the starters as an RB1, and they go down, and you don’t have the handcuff. Your then RB2 moves into your RB1 spot, and your flex goes to your RB2 spot. You are then picking up another flex player to play in the flex. By having the handcuff, you keep your team intact in terms of fantasy production. We have already seen some major injuries this year in Barkely and Marlon Mack. How crushing would it be to be in the playoffs with a great team only to lose your star RB and then get knocked out in the 1st round? You have to hold because if they hit, then you are set and can win your league. If they don’t hit, it doesn’t cost you anything because you are still getting the starter’s production.

The Pessimist

You have to make it to the playoffs. You have to cover bye weeks. That’s inevitable. Do you wait until the week of and pick up whoever is the new hotness and chase his points from the previous week or pick up a trending guy right away and see if he can continue that production? If you don’t have the bench spots, you probably missed on someone like Miles Gaskin after week two, and now he’s low-end RB2 every week based on volume alone. You might have missed out on someone like Joshua Kelley because you were holding your handcuff. If you can’t win the weeks that you have guys on byes, your chances of making the playoffs drops, so it won’t matter if you can cover a late-season injury or not. Give me the production now and the chance to see what the lotto tickets are so that I can pivot rather than hold a ticket for later and hope it pans out. If I drop the handcuff now and pick up someone who might just be a flash in the pan, I can drop them and try again. I want more opportunities to hit it big over a higher percentage.

The Optimist

But you could have also spent your waiver priority on guys like Nyheim Hines, who hasn’t panned out after the Mack injury. Sure, you might have dropped Mattison, Pollard, for someone like D. Freeman after the Barkley injury, but how has that worked out? He’s still just a flex play at best. You don’t gain anything over the current flex plays you have on your roster. Hyde is a slightly different category since he has been hurt himself. What are your thoughts on holding someone else’s handcuff? Would you do it?

The Pessimist

Generally no. Now, if you have depth and can cover your byes and have a good record, maybe, but even then, it’s a gamble. If every player is a 50/50 shot to be good or trash, I want as many shots to hit the good side. So I’d rather play the waiver every week and hope one of the five guys I pick up from weeks 5-10 hits rather than hold one guy for five weeks and hope he hits.

The Optimist

I think you can hold them. It’s a risky move for sure. It would be best if you were in a good spot record-wise and depth-wise. If you are holding, say Mattison but are not the Cook owner, you are hoping for a Cook injury, which always seems terrible, but if it does happen, and we have seen more injuries this year than most, you now go from 2 starting RBs to 3. That’s a huge upgrade. It allows you to do more. Start them in your flex or trade them to sure up a weak position like WR, TE, QB. If you drop them, there is a good chance that the starter owner picks them up. And what do you get? A flex play? Don’t you already have enough of them on your bench as is?

The Pessimist

Hoping for an injury is just bad karma. I’d rather hope my guys can be good on their own rather than wait for someone to get injured. In a dynasty format, I think it’s more doable due to the bench size and because the starter or backup could be moved to another team in the offseason. In redraft, I struggle with giving up production now vs. possible future production. Yes, the guys you get off waivers may be flex plays, but at least you will know that after a week or two, you can then drop them and move on to the next one. If they hit, they become the guys we talk about at the end of the fantasy season as league winners.

The Optimist

The handcuffs can be league winners as well. Sure, you won’t be able to pat yourself on the back or be the internet hero telling how you scooped up a guy off waivers that produced RB2 numbers at the end of the season or had a monster week in the fantasy championship. To me, its risk vs. reward. The risk is a bench spot. The reward is an RB1. I’d rather that than risking a bench spot and waiver priority for even at best an RB1 but most likely a consistent RB3/flex play with some upside and maybe a good week here and there. So what are you doing with them?

The Pessimist

The season is getting shorter. It’s time to cut ties and move on. We are in week five, so you have eight more weeks. That’s plenty of time to build some wins and get guys that will produce in your starting lineup NOW. Waivers get crazy this time of year, so that handcuff most likely will be out there, and yes will be a hot pick up if the starter goes down. But who is to say you’re not the one who gets him? You can’t let the fact that you drafted them over some other depth guy hold you back from making a move.

The Optimist

I’m still holding them. It might be challenging in leagues with short benches, but I still think guys like Pollard, Mattison are worth holding on to as insurance to your 1st round pick. I think Hyde is possibly droppable due to his injury but needs to be on the shortlist of guys to pick up once he’s healthy if you have room. A lot of it comes down to roster construction and record. If you have a rolling team and don’t get slammed with byes in one week and you can work with limited depth to cover that, you are good to hold on to your handcuff. Holding someone else’s is more challenging but still not impossible. I still want a guy who can be a star over a guy who is just a flex player.

This article was written by Dustin Ludke (dunit13dl). If you’re a member of the Poll Sports community and are interested in contributing to the Poll Sports blog, send us a note at info[at]pollsports[dot]com